It's probably the million dollar question to anyone in the real estate industry, as well as anyone with designs on buying a new home for their family. We've seen sizable increases in the number of sales happening, as well as some price stabilation in areas of Ventura County. Will this good news for housing continue with the economy losing hundreds of thousands of jobs, the stockmarket in freefall, and all this talk of a deep recession?
Cheif economist, Lawrence Yun, with the National Association of Realtors was asked to comment on the housing market and he had this to say:
"We are in a recession," Yun said. "In the next six months, we may lose up to 1 million jobs. But the good news is, historically housing moves independently from the economy. We are seeing a 20 percent improvement in home sales in states like California, Florida, and Virginia. The economy will not improve without a housing recovery."
Mr. Yun is surely smarter than I am when it comes to economics, but it was my experience that the housing market hasn't followed the economy in the recent past. I guess only time will tell, but there does seem to be some significant moves in the right direction happening in housing right now.
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I think a bad economy will hinder real estate personally. We need confidence before we step up to the plate and buy.
I don't know what is next, but it seems to be picking up around here in the last month or so which is good. If a million people lose jobs in the next year though, I'm not sure how that will help the market. Hopefully the market and the economy will cycle around soon.
As prices come down, more homes will become affordable. With 7% unemployment that means 93% of people have jobs. Some markets still need to correct and that will delay any pickup in housing sales. However with that said I do not see a robust market for several years. Just too many variables.
Interesting question ... which I doubt I'm qualified to answer.